Saturday, September 4

Like Father Like Son

Steve Gilliard has another nice column, this time reflecting on the convention and its aftermath.

While the right is saying "Kerry is toast" and the faint of heart wish Howard Dean hadn't self-immolated, the fact is that Kerry stands a much better chance of winning than Clinton did in 1992. He's got money, millions of active dems working to elect him, and Karl Rove. Not to mention Bush's bad luck.

On a day which should have been covering Bush's post-convention swing, we've seen more of Jeb Bush and Hurricane Frances, then the disasterous raid on the Chechen school. Once again, events have conspired to work against Bush.

Besides, Bush's campaign has been off their game. Focusing on Vietnam, which is building into a nasty backlash for Bush. It's a quiet thing, but I think a key mistake was mocking Kerry's Purple Hearts. I think a lot of people were offended, but that could only happen when people are looking inward. The GOP is now an inward looking party.

Now, this is a disaster in the making. Bush's personality isn't enough here. With it's vulgar appeals to theocracy and it's harsh, macho rhetoric, as the media dissects it over the next week, the scale of the disaster will be seen. The GOP doesn't see it any more than the Dems saw Reagan in 1980. They ridiculed him until it was election day and then he won.

And while a lot of Dems want Kerry to lash out, he has to be careful and time his attacks right. One thing which the Dems haven't done, and have to, from the blogs to campaign talking points, is create the sense of inevitability of Bush's defeat.
People have a tendency to forget, or mistakenly lose from the equation, that the press is not yet on our side, and has not given our viewpoints equal time. There are several agendas at work. It is realy easy to be a stenographer, and who among you would not take the opportunity to slack off if given the chance to do so without retribution.

The media also feels that the trivial sells more advertising than hard news, and as corporate ownership is primarily concerned with the bottom line and secondarily concerned with the manipulation of the populous, the media will keep riding that pony. Maintaing a corporate friendly government also increases dividends. So Kerry has to be careful, and strike in ways that can not be turned around on him., I have faith in his tactical acumen.
Between the investigations and the failures in Iraq, something will break to the point that the perennially unlucky Bush will be seen as the clear loser.

The GOP no longer bothers to talk to those who don't abide by every tenent of their ideology. They even shut aside apostates like gays and pro-cnoice Republicans. Rove may think he's going to get 4m evangelical votes, but with their anti-gay agenda, besides those with other issues like Ed Koch, they're going to lose those 1m gays who voted for Bush and maybe another couple of million moderate Republican women.

As Bill Schnider said, no presidential election has ever been won by turning out your base. If Rove pulls it off, he's a genius, but personally, I think he's so far over his head he's drowning. He's never managed an incumbent's campaign before, and his inability to create a coherent defense for Bush's record is showing.
Karl will find out the hard way that it is a lot easier to swindle an electorate with a relatively unknown candidate, than one whose only virtues have been constructed with a measure of smoke, mirrors, papier mache, and bubblegum, i.e nothing of substance.
The convention seemed to degenerate into a base maintaning fusillade of red meat for the faithful, instead of the fire up the center, keep the goons in the closet affair that it was advertised to be.

Karl seems to think an energized base and a bit electoral manipulation will do the job for him. I am not confident that the party is smart enough to pull off the massive vote fraud needed without getting caught. Also I would dare anyone to come forward with a converted gore or nader voter planning on casting a ballot for bush. I have heard of far too many bush voters leaving throwing their support to kerry, or planning on not showing up.

A lot of new people who have never voted befiore, have registered with the Democratic party, and I am confident that our turnout is gonna be huge. I'll step out on a limb and suggest that 105-110 million will turn out to vote this year, and if I am correct, His Chimperial Majesty is gonna be heading back to Crawford in January. Of course, not before pulling all of the J, F, and K keys, off of the keyboards. I would not put it past president projection to fling shit at the walls of the oval office before a secret service detail drags his cry ass out of the place. Head on over there and read the rest.


Head on over to this fine Kos Diary and comment thread by Maryscott O' Connor which adds a few reasons to alleviate your fears. A taste follows:
Do you really believe that the virtual tie between Bush and Kerry has somehow magically evaporated due to the Republican National Convention? Somehow that 10% of registered voters, immovable from Kerry's camp for months, watched the RNC and were persuaded to vote for Bush??? Are you frigging kidding me?

I don't pretend to understand polls, outliers or otherwise. I do know that however this Time poll was conducted, it must be really messed up in some fundamental way.

The real panic seems to be about the media, as usual, and how they will bleat the news long and loud, claiming this huge bounce for Bush and calling the election two months in advance.
Go Go for the good of the city, and read the rest.